Households and businesses have been warned of increased blackout risks for the electricity grid this summer, following fears from the market operator that supply may not meet the incoming cooling demands.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) – the electricity grid’s independent operator – has forecasted several gaps in energy supply reliability over the next 10 years. This may contribute to escalated blackout risks this summer, particularly in Victoria and South Australia, if more generation is not incorporated into the grid
The forecasted shortfall has been attributed to predictions of population growth and increased use of electric-powered appliances across transport options and residential heating, cooking and water heating. This growth, however, coincides with the reduction of several coal-fired power generators, including Origin Energy’s Eraring plant closure in 2025.
AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said the forecast showcased an urgency for new reliable and affordable energy options for customers.
“Over the 10-year outlook, we continue to forecast reliability gaps, which are mostly due to the expectation that 62 per cent of today’s coal fleet will retire by 2033,” he said.
“To ensure Australian consumers continue to have access to reliable electricity supplies, it’s critical that planned investments in transmission, generation and storage projects are urgently delivered.”
Without intervention, Victoria is predicted to experience heightened risk of blackouts from summer 2023, with New South Wales following suit in 2025-2026, and Queensland in 2029-2030. South Australia is also forecasted as a risk this summer, with another dip expected in 2028-2029.
Mr Westerman said the forecast did not take into account proposed projects which, if acted on, could help to close the gap.
“While our central scenario shows increased reliability risk, it does not reflect the reliability potential from the 248-gigawatt (GW) pipeline of proposed generation and storage projects, actionable transmission projects and government energy programs underway.”
In addition to grid-based supply reliability issues, the increased weather events expected as part of the incoming El Niño summer are anticipated to drive energy demand up.
Mr Westerman added: “We’re expecting an elevated level of risk compared to recent years, mostly due to hotter and drier conditions, and coal-fired generation reliability is at historic lows. The entire industry is focused on managing the risks in the summer ahead, particularly during high-demand periods coupled with generation outages and low renewable output, but some risk will remain.”
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Here are some of the cheapest published deals from the retailers on our database that include a link to the retailer’s website for further details. These are products from referral partners†. These costs are based on the Ausgrid network in Sydney but prices may vary depending on your circumstances. This comparison assumes general energy usage of 3911kWh/year for a residential customer on a single rate tariff. Please use our comparison tool for a specific comparison in your area. Our database may not cover all deals in your area. As always, check all details of any plan directly with the retailer before making a purchase decision.
Here are some of the cheapest published deals from the retailers on our database that include a link to the retailer’s website for further details. These are products from referral partners†. These costs are based on the Citipower network in Melbourne but prices may vary depending on your circumstances. This comparison assumes general energy usage of 4000kWh/year for a residential customer on a single rate tariff. Please use our comparison tool for a specific comparison in your area. Our database may not cover all deals in your area. As always, check all details of any plan directly with the retailer before making a purchase decision.
Here are some of the cheapest published deals from the retailers on our database that include a link to the retailer’s website for further details. These are products from referral partners†. These costs are based on the Energex network in Brisbane but prices may vary depending on your circumstances. This comparison assumes general energy usage of 4613kWh/year for a residential customer on a single rate tariff. Please use our comparison tool for a specific comparison in your area. Our database may not cover all deals in your area. As always, check all details of any plan directly with the retailer before making a purchase decision.
Here are some of the cheapest published deals from the retailers on our database that include a link to the retailer’s website for further details. These are products from referral partners†. These costs are based on the SA Power network in Adelaide but prices may vary depending on your circumstances. This comparison assumes general energy usage of 4011kWh/year for a residential customer on a single rate tariff. Please use our comparison tool for a specific comparison in your area. Our database may not cover all deals in your area. As always, check all details of any plan directly with the retailer before making a purchase decision.
What can I do to prepare for blackouts this summer?
There isn’t a sure-fire way to avoid a blackout if you are connected to the electricity grid. However, there are few things you can do today to prepare for potential blackouts this summer. These include:
- Ensure you have an emergency kit ready and up to date with plenty of non-perishable food items, torches, candles, bottled water and a first aid kit.
- Collate a list of emergency contact numbers, such as your electricity distributor, the local SES and your power provider.
- Make a back-up plan for power supply. This can be particularly important for households that have members who require life-sustaining equipment that needs to be powered in order to work.
- Ensure all your electrical outlets are safe to use and surge-protected to avoid damage to appliances.
Canstar Blue Utilities Editor Tara Donnelly said those dedicated to the cause may even choose to take this time to consider the benefits of solar power.
“For those fortunate enough to access renewable energy sources, such as rooftop solar panels and batteries, now might also prove an excellent time to start thinking about installing one of these systems in the home,” she said.
“While still a grid-connected unit, solar panels and batteries, particularly those with back-up power generation, can prove an excellent alternate source of energy, not only during power outages, but also during times of peak demand.
“Solar users may be able to help to reduce the strain on the grid this summer in small portions, by avoiding grid electricity during times of high demand or sending their excess solar to the grid for other households to use.”
Ms Donnelly reminded households that interacting with fallen powerlines or damaged electrical equipment can be fatal and to always contact an emergency service provider or energy distributor if they need help during a blackout.
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